The Pre-Olympics volleyball tournaments to be held in the coming weeks - first for women, then for men - will apply a novel qualification format for the Paris 2024 Olympics.
The 2023 Pre-Olympics will have three zones of eight teams for each gender: these 24 countries will compete for the six available spots in this stage. Las Panteras will play in the group that will be held in Japan, which will be broadcasted by ESPN and Star Plus, while there will be two other Pre-Olympics in China and Poland. The top two teams from each zone will earn their ticket to the 2024 Olympic Games: there will be six teams with a direct flight to Paris, in addition to France, who naturally has the first spot secured as the host country. In a few weeks, there will already be seven qualified teams for each gender, and in June 2024, the remaining five teams will join them, completing a quota of 12 teams per gender.
Five more spots in 2024 The remaining five Olympic spots will be decided based on the rankings of the International Federation (FIVB) in June 2024, after the regular phase of the Volleyball Nations League (VNL). Since all continents must have representatives in the Games, the countries from continental federations that have not yet qualified their teams in the Pre-Olympics (South America, North America and Caribbean, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and Africa) will secure the first spot for next year. If the top candidates qualify in 2023, there would be no African teams qualified, so one of the vacancies will go to the highest-ranked team from that continent in June 2024. Once all continental federations have at least one representative, the remaining spots will be distributed to the highest-ranked teams who have not yet secured their ticket to Paris.
The horizon for the women's tournament Serbia and China appear as favorites in the women's Pre-Olympics, which will be held in the Asian country. Turkey and Brazil will compete in the group that will be played in Japan. The United States and Italy or Poland will compete in the group that will be held in Poland. In this case, these six countries and France would already have their passport stamped in 2023. Kenya, currently ranked 21st, would take Africa's place, which would still not have any representatives.
If there are no major surprises in the FIVB ranking, at the end of the 2024 VNL, the teams of Italy or Poland (whichever does not qualify in 2023), Japan, the Netherlands, and the Dominican Republic (currently head to head) would join. Canada, Germany, Belgium, and Thailand could also compete for the last spot. In any of these scenarios, Las Panteras would have no chance of reaching Paris 2024. According to the current outlook, their first tournament in 2024 would be the Challenger Cup qualifying or the Challenger Cup itself, but they will not have the opportunity to compete in the VNL and, therefore, cannot close the gap with teams ahead of them in the rankings. They can only qualify for the 2024 Games through a huge upset in the Pre-Olympics that will be played from this Saturday morning in Tokyo.
And in the men's tournament? Initially, Brazil and Italy are strong contenders to secure the two spots in the men's Pre-Olympics, which will be hosted by Brazil. Surprisingly, Japan and the United States are the favorites on Japanese soil, while Poland and Argentina are the leading candidates to secure their visa in China. Even if they don't qualify in the 2023 Pre-Olympics, the team led by Marcelo Méndez is virtually assured a spot in the 2024 Paris Games.
If the mentioned teams advance, with the exception of the Argentine team, the next spot would go to an African team (Tunisia and Egypt are currently battling in the 18th and 19th positions of the world ranking), and immediately after, Argentina would qualify, currently ranked 6th, while all the teams ahead of them would have already qualified. Argentina has 318 points in the ranking. If they don't qualify in the Pre-Olympics, but the other favorites do, the Albiceleste would undoubtedly be among the four teams that will secure their spot in 2024, as they currently have a 109-point advantage over Cuba, ranked 12th and the first team set to be left out. Furthermore, the Argentine team is closer to Poland, the top-ranked team (91 points behind) than the Cubans are to Argentina (109 points).
Paris 2024, with three qualifying groups
The traditional format of the Olympic Games, which used to have two groups and then granted passes for the elimination stage, will be a thing of the past starting from Paris. In 2024, the first stage of the Games will have three groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group and the top two third-place teams (eight teams in total) will advance to the quarterfinals, from which there will be knockout matches on the road to the medals.