The Cincinnati Reds will aim to secure a series win on Thursday. The Reds welcome the Miami Marlins to Great American Ball Park for the finale of a four-game set. Cincinnati and Miami take the field for a matinee clash on getaway day. The Marlins are 46-52 this season, with the Reds posting a 38-59 record. Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.70 ERA) is on the mound for Cincinnati, while Miami has called up righty Daniel Castano from Triple-A Jacksonville to start.
First pitch is at 12:35 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Cincinnati is the -140 favorite (risk $140 to win $100) on the money line, while Miami is +118. The over-under for total runs scored is set at nine in the latest Marlins vs. Reds odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Reds vs. Marlins picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 284-243 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning over $400 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Marlins vs. Reds and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Reds vs. Marlins:
- Marlins vs. Reds money line: Reds -140, Marlins +118
- Marlins vs. Reds over-under: 9 runs
- Marlins vs. Reds run line: Reds -1.5 (+143)
- MIA: The Marlins are 19-21 in day games
- CIN: The Reds are 16-23 in day games
- Marlins vs. Reds picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Marlins
Miami's team speed sets an impressive tone. The Marlins lead the National League in stolen bases, and Miami is fully capable of putting pressure on Cincinnati by taking the extra base. Miami's offense is also buoyed in this matchup but a struggling Reds bullpen. Cincinnati's corps of relievers is last in the National League with an ERA over 5.00 this season, and the Reds also rank last in the NL in wins above replacement from relief pitchers.
Cincinnati's bullpen has a combined ground ball rate below 40 percent with more than four walks per nine innings. On the run prevention side, Miami should also benefit from Cincinnati's struggles, as the Reds have floundered on offense in 2022. Cincinnati currently ranks in the bottom five of the National League in hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS this season.
Why you should back the Reds
Cincinnati's offense has a strong centerpiece in Brandon Drury. The 29-year-old infielder ranks in the top 25 of the National League in home runs this season, and Drury is slugging more than .500 in 2022. In contrast, Cincinnati is facing a Miami offense that does not bring much power to the table. The Marlins are in the bottom third of the National League in runs scored, walks, doubles, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage this season.
Cincinnati also has a quality starting pitching option in Ashcraft, and the 24-year-old has a 3.34 ERA in home starts this season. Ashcraft is limiting opponents to 2.3 walks and 0.9 home runs per nine innings, and left-handed hitters have only a .517 OPS against him in 2022.
How to make Reds vs. Marlins picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 9.3 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Marlins vs. Reds? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.