The Seattle Mariners (45-41) host the Toronto Blue Jays (44-42) Sunday at T-Mobile Park for their 4-game series finale with the 1st pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle has won the first 3 games of this series by a combined score of 15-6. The 2-1 victory Saturday was keyed by Mariners 1B Carlos Santana 2-run home run in the top of the 8th inning.
The Mariners are riding a 7-game winning streak while the Blue Jays have lost 8 of their last 9 games.
Season series: Seattle leads 4-2 and the Mariners have a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.
Blue Jays at Mariners projected starters
RHP Max Castillo vs. LHP Logan Gilbert
Toronto hasn’t officially announced its starter but Castillo is projected to get the nod. He’s 0-0 with a 2.38 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 15 K in 5 relief appearances.
Figures to be an opener for Toronto’s bullpen day. His ERA is misleading because he has a .174 BAbip, which is a luck-based metric, but a 50.0% hard-hit rate and 91.9 mph exit velocity, both significantly higher than the MLB average.Gilbert is 10-3 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 100 IP over 17 starts.
Last start: Won 6-2 Tuesday at the San Diego Padres with 5 1/3 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 6 H, 3 BB and 1 K. 2022 vs. the Rays: Lost 3-0 May 17 in Toronto with 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 9 K. 2022 home splits: 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 4 HR and 8.4 K/9 in 7 starts.Blue Jays at Mariners odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.
Money line (ML): Blue Jays +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100) Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-210) | Mariners -1.5 (+170) Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Blue Jays at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Blue Jays 3
Money line
BET the MARINERS (-125) since they have a massive edge in the pitching matchup over the Blue Jays (+102).
Gilbert will most likely be selected to the AL All-Star roster this month and Seattle’s bullpen is 2nd in K/BB rate (3.53) with much better swing-and-miss and contact rates than Toronto’s bullpen, according to FanGraphs.
The Mariners are red-hot entering Sunday and I still think the Blue Jays are slightly overrated due to all the sluggers in their lineup. Also, Toronto hasn’t scored more than 3 runs in any of its last 7 games.
BET MARINERS (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Mariners -1.5 (+170) are just 9-17 RL as home favorites, the Blue Jays +1.5 (-210) 9-4 RL as road underdogs and I’m hesitant to “sprinkle” on Seattle’s RL since we don’t know who Toronto’s official starter at this time.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+100) since Seattle is 7-9 O/U in Gilbert’s 16 starts and 18-24-1 O/U at home and the Blue Jays-Mariners is 1-5 O/U in their last 6 meetings.
However, I cannot fully endorse an Under wager since we don’t have a strong enough grasp of Toronto’s pitching situation.
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