Welcome to Bet For the Win’s W Bets
Where we break down, explain and bet on the WNBA. Today, we’re running down the first Friday slate of the 2022 season.
Season picks (record): 3-4
It’s Friday night in the W and there’s a fun three-game slate on deck to take us into the weekend.
The Indiana Fever and Connecticut Sun kick things off with a battle at Mohegan Sun Arena. Then, the extremely hot Atlanta Dream looks to log a home win against the equally-as-hot Washington Mystics. Finally, the Los Angeles Sparks and Seattle Storm close out the slate with some action in the Pacific Northwest.
Here’s a look at Friday’s matchups, odds, and storylines.
All odds via Tipico Sportsbook.
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun (-15.5)
Indiana has followed a pattern through six games. The Fever began the season with two losses, which were followed by back-to-back wins, and then two more consecutive losses. So they should be in store for a win on Friday, right?
Not exactly. The Fever, while improved, are still a team trying to figure things out. They are led by Kelsey Mitchell but mostly have rookies taking up the rotation minutes, which doesn’t seem like a winning formula against a veteran Connecticut Sun squad that allows a WNBA-low 68.7 points per game and forces a league-high 23.0 turnovers per contest.
Connecticut’s average margin of victory this season is 17.0 points, so seeing the line set at -15.5 isn’t too crazy. In fact, I suggest you roll with it. Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones and Dewanna Bonner are just going to be too much for the Fever,
Game Lines
Spread: Sun -15.5 (-107)
Moneyline: Sun (-1600), Fever (+800)
Point Total: Over 156.5 (-108), Under 156.5 (-112)
The Pick: Sun -15.5
Washington Mystics (-1.5) vs. Atlanta Dream
Here we have it — the game of the day in the WNBA. Both the Dream and Mystics are a surprising (yet impressive) 4-1 through five games.
The Dream’s start is clearly the more unexpected of the two. Rhyne Howard has already earned WNBA Player of the Week honors and is averaging over 20.0 points through her first five W games. But Cheyenne Parker, Aari McDonald, Erica Wheeler and others are making huge contributions to winning as well.
The Mystics are just a better team. We’ve sung their praises quite a bit already, but they truly have the DNA of a championship team with everyone healthy and playing up to their potential (hence their 4-1 start).
Game Lines
Spread: Mystics -1.5 (-108)
Moneyline: Mystics (-125), Dream (+102)
Point Total: Over 157.5 (-110), Under 157.5 (-110)
The Pick: Mystics ML
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm (-7.5)
These two teams have the same record (2-3) but are having two completely different starts to the season.
Los Angeles is slow out of the gates, mostly due to continuity but partially due to fit. The Sparks have a bunch of guards and bigs but not many wings, and neither of them are necessarily a great mesh together on the court. But it’s still early enough in the season to understand that Derek Fisher needs time to make it work.
Seattle got bit by the league’s health and safety protocols. Breanna Stewart and Epiphanny Prince both missed the Storm’s two games against the Phoenix Mercury a week ago, which resulted in back-to-back losses for Seattle.
Knowing this, it’s easier to see Seattle grabbing this game at home. They have better continuity and a better roster than the Sparks.
Game Lines:
Spread: Storm -7.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Storm (-320), Sparks (+250)
Point Total: Over 160.5 (-108), Under 160.5 (-112)
The Pick: Storm ML
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