A tantalizing mixture of first and second round encounters make up the order of play on day three at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters, with some of the top seeds set to take to the courts to get their pristine socks covered in red dirt. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule, including Novak Djokovic vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Fabio Fognini vs Stefanos Tsitsipas. But who will advance?
ATP Monte Carlo Day 3 Predictions
Taylor Fritz vs Lucas Catarina
Head-to-head: first meeting
This will be Lucas Catarina’s seventh wild card to his home event and he is yet to win a match. Last year was his closest he has come yet against qualifier Salvatore Caruso but, unfortunately for the Monegasque athlete, Taylor Fritz is likely to provide much sterner opposition in 2022. The Indian Wells champion would probably class clay as his worst surface, but on the form he showed at Houston where he reached the quarterfinals, he should still have enough to comfortably reach the next round.
Prediction: Fritz in 2
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Lorenzo Musetti vs Benoit Paire
Head-to-head: Musetti 1-0 Paire
Both of these men having losing records on the main tour over the last twelve months. The last 12 months was meant to be Lorenzo Musetti’s acceleration into becoming a very good player but that never materialized last year, no doubt the Italian will be looking to attack this clay-court swing, with the terre battue by far his best surface. It is also probably Benoit Paire’s best, certainly, it is the one that has the highest win percentage for him over his career. But Paire has lost in the first round on the last four occasions he has played in Monaco and has lost six of the seven first-round matches he has played at this event over the course of his career. Musetti should just be too solid for Paire.
Prediction: Musetti in 2
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Holger Rune vs Aslan Karatsev
Head-to-head: Karatsev 1-0 Rune
Holger Rune is very much coming into form at the right time from his perspective. With the clay-court swing just beginning, it could well be a chance for Rune to improve on his ranking and so gain access to the bigger events from the summer onwards. Aslan Karatsev has recent experience of being the breakthrough man on tour, albeit much later in his career, but his momentum has stalled somewhat. The Russian won their last meeting but that match came very much in the Russian’s favor in terms of conditions with it being an indoor hard court match. This battle will give Rune a much better chance and the Dane is rightly the favourite here.
Prediction: Rune in 2
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Dusan Lajovic vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: Dimitrov 2-1 Lajovic
Grigor Dimitrov should have the advantage in this match as he has the superior serve and a respectable enough return game to have the most chances to break Dusan Lajovic. Neither man has a winning record on clay over the last twelve months, but Lajovic’s record is slightly worse over that time, despite this being ostensibly his best surface, so that is another slight edge towards the Bulgarian. Expect it to be quite tight though as the Serbian’s has generally played well on the clay and particularly in Monte Carlo, but there is a skill gap between these two that will likely prove too great for Lajovic to bridge.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 3
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