The Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets have played three times this season, producing two games that were duds and a third that was spectacular but missing Kevin Durant.
Since giving us one of the best series of last year’s playoffs, these teams have yet to play a game reminiscent of that seven-game set in the Eastern Conference semifinals. That’s about to change Thursday night in Brooklyn.
Not only is Durant back, but Kyrie Irving is now cleared to play home games for the Nets. And Milwaukee has Brook Lopez back in the lineup after he missed the first five months of the season. With the exception of Ben Simmons, who has yet to suit up for the Nets, both teams are about as healthy as they can be. And it’s just in time for a playoff tune-up and potential first-round preview.
So who wins?
Take the Nets -1.5
Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images
When the teams are this good, the margins are that much smaller. Either team could pull out the win, as reflected by the slim 1.5-point spread in favor of the Nets on Tipico Sportsbook.
I’m picking Brooklyn to cover and win the game for one simple fact: the Nets are home. And not only are they at home, but they’ve been home for the past five days, going on their third straight game at Barclays. It’s a small advantage but one worth considering when the Bucks have been on the road that entire time, coming off of games in Memphis and Philadelphia. By contrast, the Nets played Charlotte and Detroit.
Make no mistake, both teams should get up for this game, but if any team has more emotional currency to expend right now, it’s the Nets. Brooklyn is also simply more desperate for a win as it sits just a half game ahead of the Hornets for eighth in the Eastern Conference and two games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for seventh. The Nets will be fighting hard over their final six games to finish in seventh or eighth and make sure they only have to win one play-in game to reach the playoffs.
With both lineups intact, these teams will be squaring one another up for the playoffs. The Bucks are the reigning champs, but the Nets are the team that at less than full strength nearly eliminated them from the postseason. And they might meet again this year, but sooner. The Bucks are currently second in the East and just a game out of first place, meaning they’ll play the seventh or eighth seed in the first round of the playoffs if they can remain a top-two team.
Player props
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 points
The Nets and a matchup against Kevin Durant always brings out the best in Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s scored at least 30 points in 11 of his last 13 games against them, including the playoffs. Out of those 11 games, he went over 32 nine times.
There’s a good chance he does it again Thursday, coming off his second 40-point game of the month Tuesday against the 76ers. Antetokounmpo has been averaging a little more than 32 points per game since the start of the new year.
Seth Curry Over 11.5 points and Over 2.5 3-pointers
The last time these teams met, Kyrie Irving scored 38 points in a game that came down to the final possession. Brooklyn won and Kevin Durant didn’t even play. With both in the lineup Thursday, it’s safe to say they’ll attract a lot of Milwaukee’s defensive attention.
That should free up Seth Curry for a few open looks and he’ll always knock those down. He’s averaging 15 points and three 3-pointers per game on the season. Curry scored 19 with four 3-pointers the last game against Milwaukee, and he’s eclipsed 11 points in four of his last five games (not including the game against Utah he left early due to injury).
Jrue Holiday Over 6.5 assists
Depending on how well Khris Middleton plays, the Bucks may need Jrue Holiday to pick up a bulk of the scoring load Thursday. But the good news is he’s recently been able to contribute to the offense as both a scorer and facilitator in a big way. Holiday is averaging 20 points and nearly eight assists in the month of March, up from his still-solid 18.6 points and 6.8 assists on the season.
Holiday had 10 assists in each of his last two games and recorded at least seven assists in nine of 12 games this month, including four straight. He had seven the last time these teams met.
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