22/11/2024

2018 Kentucky Derby odds, contenders, post draw: Favorite Justify draws No. 7 post

Martes 01 de Mayo del 2018

2018 Kentucky Derby odds, contenders, post draw: Favorite Justify draws No. 7 post

Here's all the info you need to know from Tuesday’s draw for post positions and odds

Here's all the info you need to know from Tuesday’s draw for post positions and odds

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The draw for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby is in, with a field of 20 horses getting their post positions on Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs. Pre-race favorite Justify took Post No. 7, an excellent draw for the Bob Baffert thoroughbred, which tops the field at 3-1 odds.

Blended Citizen also qualified as an "also eligible" addition to the field, making the field 21 horses for 20 posts. Blended Citizen would be drawn in if one of the other 20 horses in the field can't run. Mendelssohn, trained by Aidan O'Brien, also drew a good post at No. 14, and neither horse will likely see their odds drop significantly with those posts, which are more towards the center. The first 10 saw a few of the favorites get drawn, but Justify was the main one to get picked. 

Fan-favorite Audible took the fifth post, which historically has been extremely friendly to horses. One of Todd Fletcher's four horses in this race, Audible has had decent odds. This can only improve those odds moving forward. Lone Sailor, the horse of late Saints' owner Tom Benson drew the No. 8 post. Current Saints' owner Gayle Benson will reportedly be in attendance to watch Lone Sailor between Pelicans playoff games.

Kentucky Derby post draw, updated odds

Post

Horse

Odds

1

Firenze Fire

50-1

2

Free Drop Billy

30-1

3

Promises Fulfilled

30-1

4

Flameaway

30-1

5

Audible

8-1

6

Good Magic

12-1

7

Justify 

3-1

8

Lone Sailor

50-1

9

Hofburg

20-1

10

My Boy Jack

30-1

11

Bolt d'Oro

8-1

12

Enticed

30-1

13

Bravazo

50-1

14

Mendelssohn

5-1

15

Instilled Regard

50-1

16

Magnum Moon

6-1

17

Solomini

30-1

18

Vino Rosso

12-1

19

Noble Indy

30-1

20

Combatant

50-1

Favorite would break curse older than a century

Justify, of course, currently has the best odds at 3-1 out of Post 7. The horse is looking to break the Apollo Curse. No horse has won without racing at 2 years old since Apollo in 1882. Justify and Magnum Moon (6-1) are the only two in this field that could end the 135-year-old curse.

Best and worst post positions

Post positions may not matter for the long haul, but they can make all the difference in the scrum at the beginning of the race. According to America's Best Racing's Christina Moore, No. 17 is the dreaded post position. No horse has ever won the Derby out of that gate, and only three have finished in the money. Solomini is a longshot at 30-1 to do so. Beyond that, Posts 18-20 have yielded just one winner, and nine in the money finishes between them. Vino Rosso out of No. 19 is the one most likely to buck that trend at 12-1 odds.

Post No. 5 is the magic number, with 10 champions starting out of that gate. At 8-1 odds, Audible has decent potential to build on that legacy. 21 horses have finished in the money from No. 5, surpassed only by Posts 2 (seven winners, 25 ITM finishes), run by Free Drop Billy at 30-1 odds; and 10 (nine winners, 24 ITM), owned by My Boy Jack -- also at 30-1 odds.

Which post is the best depends on which jockey it is, with some preferring to stay outside due to less bustle and others preferring the middle. Ultimately, however, no amount of luck in the draw will top the horses with more stamina. Justify running out of Post 7 is a good draw for the favorite, and certainly wouldn't do anything to hurt his odds moving forward.

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