28/11/2024

Tipsheet: Experts don't see Cards toppling Cubs in NL Central

Jueves 29 de Marzo del 2018

Tipsheet: Experts don't see Cards toppling Cubs in NL Central

The Cardinals hung around the wild card race last season but fell well behind the Chicago Cubs. And experts see more of the same this season.

The Cardinals hung around the wild card race last season but fell well behind the Chicago Cubs. And experts see more of the same this season.

The national view of the Cardinals hasn't changed much since last season.

Experts see the team falling short of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central again while settling into the pile of wild-card contenders. They see some hope for improvement, but they cite some unanswered questions as well.

ESPN and CBS Sports placed the Cardinals eighth in the majors in their preseason power rankings. The Bleacher Report listed them ninth and The Ringer has them 12th -- and behind the Milwaukee Brewers in their division.

The addition of power-hitting outfielder Marcell Ozuna drew praise from experts, but they wondered about the depth and quality of the Cardinals' starting rotation and noted their lack of an established closer.

• UPDATE: Closer Greg Holland agrees to deal with Cardinals

Shouldn't the Cardinals have invested more in those areas? It's not like the franchise is hurting for money.

Here are some nutshell expert assessments of the Cardinals:

Michael Baumann, The Ringer: "The Cubs are heavy favorites in the NL Central, while the Brewers had a big breakout last year and made two noisy moves in the offseason. But the Cardinals, coming off an 83-79 campaign, are still pretty solid. I don’t know if I trust last year’s breakout seasons from left fielder Tommy Pham and shortstop Paul DeJong 100 percent, but St. Louis did swoop by the Marlins’ garage sale and pick up outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who was nearly a six-win player last year. The Cardinals’ season hinges on four relatively inexperienced pitchers: Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Luke Weaver, and former global no. 1 prospect Alex Reyes when he returns from Tommy John surgery this summer. Those four pitchers have fewer than 260 big league innings between them, but they’ll be charged with eating up the 59 starts St. Louis got last year from Mike Leake (who was traded to Seattle) and Lance Lynn (who left for Minnesota in free agency). If they’re good, St. Louis should be right there in the wild-card race. If not, the Cardinals will be back around .500."

Craig Calcaterra, NBCSports.com: "Carlos Martinez will lead the starting rotation. The two-time All-Star, now 26 years old, finished with a 3.64 ERA and a 217/71 K/BB ratio in 205 innings this past season. He had posted ERAs just barely above 3.00 in the previous two seasons, so his results in 2017 were a little disappointing in that regard. Martinez has terrific stuff and is clearly the ace of the Cardinals’ staff now, and no one would be surprised if he pitched himself into Cy Young contention . . . Martinez aside, the Cardinals’ rotation is unreliable and has a realistic chance to be really bad. There’s a less likely chance it could be really good if Weaver is able to sustain his success over 30 starts, if Wainwright can put together one more solid year before drifting off into the sunset, and if Mikolas can repeat the success he had in Japan."

Mike Oz, Yahoo! Sports: "The Cardinals are searching for answers in the rotation and bullpen. Carlos Martinez is a solid anchor, but with Lance Lynn and Mike Leake gone, Adam Wainwright aging, Alex Reyes coming off Tommy John surgery and Michael Wacha struggling to stay healthy, Mike Matheny might have to patch his rotation together all season long. The bullpen is in flux too with Sueng-hwan Oh, Juan Nicasio and Trevor Rosenthal all out. Luke Gregerson was added, but he’s already hurt, leaving Bud Norris as the biggest addition. Unless St. Louis finds some magic, pitching could be its downfall."

Joe Posnanski, MLB.com: "Alex Reyes is the Cardinals' closer as the team contends late in the year . . . The Cardinals have specifically said this will not happen, which is what makes it crazy. But there are three things to consider. One, the Cards' closer situation is deeply unsettled; they start the year with Luke Gregerson in that spot, which might work and might not, and he's set to begin the year on the DL with a hamstring strain. Two, when teams struggle to close out games, they will often do extreme and unexpected things, especially if the team is in contention. Three, Reyes is an amazing talent coming off Tommy John surgery, and St. Louis has a history of using brilliant young starters (see: Adam Wainwright) to close late in the year."

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN.com: "While hopes are high that Marcell Ozuna can boost the offense with the power bat it missed last season, the Cardinals' best chance to break into baseball's elite lies with its deep starting rotation. St. Louis needs runs to hang with the deep rosters of the Cubs, Dodgers and Nationals, but if the Cards break through with a surprise NL pennant, it'll be because they outpitched their chief rivals with more high-quality innings from their rotation than their opponents can muster . . . If Ozuna returns to his pre-2017 levels, it might lead to a worsened attack. That's not because the old version of Ozuna was a bad player. No, it's more because last year's Cardinals outfield was actually pretty good and needs the improved Ozuna to up its production. Meanwhile, for all that rotation depth we're emphasizing, the Cardinals are headed into the season without a clear-cut bullpen pecking order. Maybe it works, or maybe leads start disappearing en masse."

MEGAPHONE

"I think that would be the best part of playing in a different era, not having social media. Back then, it was just all about winning. You didn’t care about exit velo, spin rate, hitting in this situation, all of these stupid numbers that are out there. It was just about winning . . . The biggest thing now is that everybody has an opinion. You’re scrutinized so much for things that you do on the field when all you’re doing is trying to win and help your team out. I know when the season starts for me, I take Twitter off my phone because there’s a lot of negative stuff out there, and I don’t like to see that."

Chicago Cubs star Kris Bryant, to USA Today, in playing baseball these days.

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