MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC on FOX 27’s main-card bouts. Today, we look at betting and fantasy options for the card.
UFC on FOX 27 takes place Saturday at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C., and the main card airs on FOX following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.
ALSO SEE:
- UFC on FOX 27 main-event breakdown: Will Derek Brunson avenge his loss to ‘Jacare’ Souza?
- UFC on FOX 27 co-main event breakdown: Can Andre Fili pull off mild upset of Dennis Bermudez?
- UFC on FOX 27 main-card breakdown: Pair of close bouts on Charlotte undercard
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Disclaimer: The following section is designed for entertainment purposes only. The unit sizes serve as a rough representation of the percentage of bankroll risked, as well as my confidence in said plays. If you intend on gambling, I suggest that you do so responsibly and legally, as it is at your own risk. All lines are drawn from 5Dimes.eu on the day this article was published (Jan. 26, 2018).
Dan’s plays
Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites):
- Justine Kish (-280)
Summary: My recommended parlay pieces are typically my most confident picks (within a reasonable price range) that could serve as potential legs for whatever play you’re trying to put together.
With the two obvious choices of Gregor Gillespie and Mirsad Bektic both being priced and inflated out of range, I elected to go with Justine Kish (6-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC), who faces Ji Yeon Kim (6-1-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC).
Despite some forgettable moments in her last outing, I believe that Kish is an underrated fighter with a lot to offer in this division. Kish has a relentless pace and pressure that exceed beyond the bounds of cardio, as the North Carolina resident has proven her resilience in bad positions throughout her career.
Kish will be facing no pushover in Kim, a hard-nosed Korean fighter who also shows inherent resilience. Primarily operating out of a more boxing-centric stance, Kim can either come forward or counter to equal effect, but often does so in a borderline defensively irresponsible way.
Given the Korean’s plodding footwork, I see Kish – an experienced striker (for her division) – having a sizeable edge in speed and movement. Kish should also have some advantages in the clinch; the 29-year-old consistently keeps active with knees and elbows, often striking off of the breaks.
Although Kim is a competent grappler who knows how to take a back and finish, I have a hard time seeing her outwork Kish, who scrambles like a daemon and possesses a bridge that rivals Regan from “The Exorcist.” Ultimately, I see Kish’s attributes of durability, skill, and relentless hustle making her one of the more secure legs on this card.
Straight plays:
- Derek Brunson +110 (1 unit)
Summary: For my straight plays, I typically like to look for fighters – from underdogs to reasonable favorites – who I feel have a solid chance and price tag.
Since most of my more confident picks are well above the -200 range, I decided to put my money where my mouth is and play Derek Brunson (18-5 MMA, 9-3 UFC), who faces Ronaldo Souza (24-5 MMA, 7-2 UFC) in the headliner.
As stated in my main-event breakdown, I believe that this could be an inopportune time for Souza to have this rematch.
Perceived advantages of being in Brunson’s hometown aside, Souza, who is returning off of a surgery, seems to be a different fighter in recent years, particularly when it comes to seeing shots. Should the Brazilian legend fail to find his timing or a takedown, then he could be forced into the harsh weather heading his way. There are a lot of live dogs on this card, but I feel best about Brunson, as I’ll be taking the shot here.
- Souza-Brunson “fight won’t start round 3” -157 (1.75 units)
Summary: My only prop on this card admittedly serves as a hedge.
As stated above, I elected to play Brunson (18-5 MMA, 9-3 UFC), who faces Souza (24-5 MMA, 7-2 UFC). Although I feel confident in my pick of Brunson, this is, after all, MMA.
Despite having a propensity for first-round finishes, Brunson’s hunger to put out his opponent inherently makes him a do-or-die type of fighter. In facing Souza – a fighter who has more ways to finish on paper – I would not necessarily be surprised to see Brunson’s best plans for revenge backfire on him.
For those reasons, I decided to pour a little heavier than my usual unit count (though let’s be honest, my unit size resembles that of a 9-year-old with an allowance). Nevertheless, there’s nothing wrong with playing a chalky prop that serves as a hedge as I have a hard time seeing this contest go past three.
Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):
- Drew Dober vs. Frank Camacho
- Erik Koch vs. Bobby Green
- Mirsad Bektic vs. Godofredo Castro
- Vinc Pichel vs. Joachim Silva